Saturday, August 29, 2009

Housing Value Decline

EIN News says, "About Half of U.S. Mortgages Seen Underwater by 2011. The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March, portending another blow to the housing market, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday. (reuters.com).
The implication of the above statement is that we are supposed to feel compassionate for the poor and unfortunate. Why?
US homeowners, with houses worth less than what they owe on them, still have homes to live in. Their mortgage payments are unrelated to the houses' values.
Whenever an item is purchased, there is a certain amount of risk involved. In the case of purchasing a house, one risk involves whether the value of the house will decrease. If there is a decrease in value, the first thing one must recognize is that the purchase was a bad investment under the circumstances that developed. That recognition should then lead to the fact that, "I will be somewhat more cautious in the future". A downside would be, if Congress or Administrative Agency bails these people out, they will then be conditioned to continue and even increase taking unsustainable risks.
The good news for these losers is that, if they continue to hold their houses, values will likely increase back to the breakeven or better point.
Deutsche Bank will have to explain to me how this, "portends another blow to the housing market". We already knew there was an oversupply of housing, under true market conditions. Correction requires a standard "workoff of inventory". Inventory reduction many times will involve price reduction. There's nothing new about that. Certainly, one should not be producing additional inventory of the same undesirable goods, if there is already an excess. We all knew that before Deutsche Bank made its statement.

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