Friday, December 19, 2014

Taxing Imported Oil

Our political associate has added a couple of points on OPEC oil strategy, but he is now concentrating initially on US oil production. He points out that US oil production has been increasing by 1 million barrels per day per year. He suggests that if this continues for five years, we will have added 5 million barrels per day to our production rate and that could make a significant difference.
I'm not sure how significant that difference will be, because we now have a production rate of 9 million barrels per day. If we had another 5 million barrels per day, our total production in five years would be 14 million barrels per day. However, we have been consuming 19 million barrels per day, which means that five years from now we will still be short 5 million barrels per day.

Our political associate goes on to say that he wants to stabilize the consumer price (generally to refineries) at $70 per barrel. He says that if the foreign supplier is charging $50 per barrel, the US would put a $20 tax on it to bring it up to $70 to the refinery. He says this would apply to 8 million barrels of imported oil, although as I mentioned above, imported oil would only be 5 million barrels per day, if US production increases at the same rate it has been for the next five years. However, starting a tax system immediately on imported oil would use the present imported amount of 10 million barrels per day, decreasing 1 million barrels per day year-by-year. By this process, he says we might be able to wipe out our national debt in 20 years.
The difficulty I find with that proposal is that as we set the floor price to $70 per barrel, OPEC will immediately accept the $70 price, and there will be no difference between the floor price and the selling price on which to levy a tax.
Another ramification which our political associate did not mention is taxing US production. If West Texas crude is selling at $50 a barrel to the refineries and the floor price is $70, we could add another $20 in tax to bring the price to the refineries up to $70. But again, West Texas crude suppliers would immediately counteract to bring their price up to $70, so that there will be nothing to tax.
Perhaps I missed something in our political associate's proposals. Here is what he had to say:

"Dr Sucsy,
Attached please find a multiyear chart of domestic US oil production.  The chart indicates the times when OPEC has engaged in price slashing and the effect on domestic production.  The exciting part is the oil production increase since 2009.  The US production has been increasing at a clip that is close to 1 Million barrels per day per year!  At $100/barrel that's $100,000,000/day per million barrels that stays in our economy and doesn't flow to our enemies.  So the change from 09 to 14 is a 4 million barrels per day added production, which is $400 million per day added to the US's economy.  That wealth staying in country benefits all of our citizens.
Over a year that is a boost of $146 Billion to our GDP added since 2009.  The total effect of all domestic production last year was something like $328.5 Billion.  No wonder the Saudi's are playing hard ball.  This is starting to leave a mark.   If the rate of increased production increased at the same rate for 5 more years, then we start to effectively manage our future and become ever more energy independent.
I agree that part of the plan should be to increase efficiency in our daily life, and that is happening.  Our vehicles, homes and factories are getting more and more energy independent.  Additionally alternative forms of energy are slowly beginning to increase, which for the long term is very important.  The one-two punch (production-efficiency) is why I think the USA could be energy independent in a decade.  That should be our national goal.  
Our energy producers believe that they can keep this production curve headed in the right direction for the foreseeable future at $70 per barrel.  A nice benefit of energy independence would be a level and more predictable energy cost.
Another benefit to keeping oil at $70/barrel is that many alternative energy sources are still economically viable, when oil reaches say $40-50/barrel the economic rules will force less development of alternative sources of energy. 
Now for the kicker, if the US paid $50/barrel of imported oil (some experts believe it could go as low as $40) and then taxed those additional 8 million barrels $20 to get them to our price floor, then we could be paying on our national debt at a rate of $160 Million per day or $58.4 Billion per year!  Over 20 years that's how we get our country back on track.
$70/barrel oil is a win-win for the US, which is exactly why our politicians will not go for it.  I have talked to long, but I hate to see wasted opportunity."

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